(Georgia Recorder) — Most legislative races are pretty anti-climactic by the time general election voters cast a ballot in the fall, and that is by design.
The state Legislature has power to determine the boundaries of its own districts, and they tend to do it in a way that protects the party in power. That leads to a lot of races where only the incumbent runs or a long-shot candidate from the other party steps up and gets a small slice of the total vote.
But when a state gets closer to 50-50, like Georgia is getting, districts that were mostly safe become less safe.
That’s what happened around the turn of the century in Georgia, when Democrats ruled the roost and Republicans were hot on their heels.
Today, Democrats – bolstered by a surprise seat flip in a northeast Georgia special election and victories in the statewide Public Service Commission race before that – think the political winds are at their back and they’ve got a shot at making big gains in the state House this year.
“There’s nothing like an election to tell us what voters think,” said Georgia Democratic Party Chair Charlie Bailey. “That’s what matters, not what I think, but what voters think.”
Bailey said Democrats are gearing up for a tough fight.
“(Republicans) are not going to sit around and spend no money,” he said. “They’re going to spend money to keep people in power that reward billionaires and big corporations. They will spend a lot of money to do that, as they have, and so it is on us to raise the resources we need and deploy them in an effective way, like we did with the PSC, like we did with House District 121, and win as many seats as we can.”
Carmen Bergman, director of the House Republican Caucus, predicted that Democrats’ effort will fall flat.
“The Georgia House Republican Caucus has a full-time political operation so that we can recruit candidates, we can train candidates, we can prepare candidates for 2026 in addition to our existing members,” she said.
Currently, the House includes 98 Republicans and 81 Democrats, including two who were recently elected and have yet to be sworn in. There is one vacancy representing a Cherokee County district that is set to be filled by a special election before the legislative session begins Jan. 12.
Bailey said there are 17 GOP-controlled House districts that are more left-leaning than the Athens-area seat that flipped in December.
“Are we going to spend significant money in all 17 of those? I don’t know. We’ll see. It depends on what the environment is like,” he said.
Bailey said there’s no guarantee that the environment will be as favorable for Democrats this year, but he’s optimistic based on the results of last year’s races.
“What it shows is that voters are quite dissatisfied and fed up with the Republican betrayal of working people, and we’re going to carry that message across all of our races across this entire state, and we’re going to net a lot of wins,” he said.
Here are some of the state House races to watch as the 2026 campaigns heat up.
Gwinnett grudge match
Buford Republican state Rep. Sandy Donatucci won her seat in 2024 by just 80 votes out of more than 30,000, defeating incumbent Democrat Farooq Mughal. Donatucci serves on the House education, transportation, and intragovernmental coordination committees.
Mughal thinks 2026 is the year he’ll make a comeback in the Gwinnett County district. He launched a campaign over the summer with an emphasis on economic issues.
Reeves rematch
Democrats think they have a fighting chance in another Gwinnett-based district that Duluth Republican Rep. Matt Reeves now represents.
Reeves, who is vice chair of the House judiciary committee and also sits on the appropriations and insurance committees, narrowly fought off Democratic challenger Michelle Kang in 2024 by around 600 votes or just about 2% of the vote.
Kang announced her comeback bid in July with a pledge to focus on kitchen table issues.
Democrat Shelly Abraham of Suwanee, who works in the architectural and engineering industry, has also filed paperwork to run against Reeves in 2026.
Silcox in the sights
Sandy Springs Republican Rep. Deborah Silcox was first elected to District 52 in 2016 but lost in 2020 to Democratic state Rep. Shea Roberts. Two years later, after Georgia redrew its legislative boundaries, Silcox went on to win in District 53, which had been drawn to favor a Republican.
But Democrats are hoping a swing in their direction will help send Silcox packing for a second time. In 2024, Silcox defeated Democrat Susie Greenberg by 1,351 votes, or just under 4%.
Democrat Beth Fuller, a former contractor with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, has announced that she is seeking election in the district.
Cleveland takes on Hilton
As a Republican in a district Joe Biden won in 2020, Peachtree Corners Rep. Scott Hilton was seen as at risk following that year’s election, but he won convincingly in 2022 and 2024, soundly defeating Democratic opponents both times.
Democrats are hoping that with Trump now in the White House, they can push the pendulum the other way in the Gwinnett and north Fulton-based district. Former Democratic state Rep. Mary Robichaux, who lost to Hilton in 2022, was recently elected mayor of North Fulton’s city of Roswell, defeating incumbent Kurt Wilson, who had the backing of Republican Gov. Brian Kemp.
Attorney Adam Cleveland, a Democrat from Johns Creek, has filed paperwork to challenge Hilton in 2026.
Potential Republican Flips
The party in the White House usually faces some heat in a midterm, and Democrats are hoping that pattern holds.
But Bergman said Georgia Democrats should not read too much into Democratic wins in other parts of the country last year.
“A special election environment is just that: It is special, strange, and odd things can happen that typically wouldn’t happen in a midterm or a general election environment,” she said.
“When you look at polling, we know Georgians think the nation is on the wrong track,” she added. “We clearly think that as a country, we are moving in the wrong direction, but that Georgia is on the right track, and that’s because of conservative Republican leadership. Frankly, the Georgia Republican brand is different than the national Republican brand, and the onus is on us to make sure that voters know that.”
One of the districts that may be most ripe for Republicans to test that theory is that of Sandersville Democratic Rep. Mack Jackson in central Georgia.
Jackson in Jeopardy?
In 2024, Jackson squeaked out a victory by 128 votes, or just .18% over Republican Tracy Wheeler. Jackson, a pastor and retired probation officer, was first elected in 2008.
Republican Thomas Wilkerson of Warrenton has filed paperwork to run against Jackson, and Sandersville Republican Trey Sheppard, a co-president of a transportation and logistics company, has also announced plans to run.
Other Democratic lawmakers who won by narrow margins in 2024 include Macon state Rep. Tangie Herring, who won by about 1% against Republican Noah Harbuck, and Butler state Rep. Patty Stinson, who beat Republican Cary Moore by about 6.5%.
As of mid-December, no opponent has filed paperwork to run in either of those districts. The official qualifying process to run in 2026 is scheduled for the first week of March.
“We are going to be playing in all of those seats and more with quality candidates who are well prepared to be able to take on that race (in 2026),” Bergman said.
